Thursday, June 01, 2006

Choose Kinky, Not Perry

This election will come down to a choice between Kinky and Perry.

Why?

Because the "Mean-Old-Granny" Strayhorn can't beat Perry with Republican voters and there aren't enough liberals in Texas to elect "DeLay-is-the-Devil" Bell.

I been looking at Perry's TV ad and it don't add up to me. Although I'm not generally a fan of the Lone Star Project, those fellas have all day to research, and they also applied their b"11$#!+ detector to Perry's ad and came to the same conclusion as me.

Perry's ad says "The average homeowner will receive a two thousand dollar tax cut."
Truth is an average home will get about $150 in property taxes in the first year.

Perry's ad says "We closed corporate loopholes."
Truth is banks, insurance, real estate, and mining companies got $1 billion in new loopholes.

Perry's ad says he's "protecting our job climate. The best in the nation."
Truth is the Texas job climate is 38th from best (worse than Oklahoma, yikes!).

12 Comments:

Anonymous Steel said...

WORSE THAN OKLAHOMA?

Well hell ... annex 'em.

That'd make a dandy campaign platform for the Kinkster.

"I'd sooner annex 'em - OK?"

4:50 AM  
Blogger Sara said...

Got your comment! And I agree that Kinky has a better chance than Bell.

5:48 PM  
Blogger Kinky is Awesome said...

Sara:

I'm glas we agree. The goofballs over at Texas Monthly don't "get it." There analysis is crazy:

In 2002 the most accurate pollster­by far­was Mike Baselice, who works for Perry and correctly predicted the outcomes of the state’s major races within fractions of a percentage point. Baselice believes that the race can be understood in terms of the built-in votes that Perry and Bell are likely to get as major-party nominees. “The lowest Republican vote this decade was David Dewhurst’s 51.8 percent in the 2002 lieutenant governor’s race against John Sharp,” he says. “So 52 percent is the base. The Democrats went as low as 32 percent, when Marty Akins got stomped for comptroller by Strayhorn. Let’s be generous and say the Republican base is only 50, the Democratic base is as much as 35, and the ticket splitters are the remaining 15.”

But how much of those base percentages can realistically be expected to hold? “Perry got 92 percent of the Republican vote in 2002,” says Baselice. “If he only gets 80 percent of his base, that puts him at 40 percent right away. But then you have to remember that he also got 15 percent of the Democratic vote against Sanchez.” Of the roughly 50 percent Republican vote, Baselice sees 80 percent going to Perry, 10 percent to Strayhorn, 5 percent to Bell, and 5 percent to Friedman. Of the Democrats’ 35 percent, he sees 75 percent going to Bell, 10 percent to Perry, 10 percent to Strayhorn, and 5 percent to Friedman. He assumes that the 15 percent independent vote will be split 30-30-30 among Perry, Strayhorn, and Bell, followed by Friedman with 10. The net result: Perry wins with 48 percent, followed by Bell at 33.25 percent, Strayhorn at 13 percent, and Friedman at 5.75 percent.

Baselice’s analysis depends on one critical assumption: The Republican and Democratic candidates will hold a high percentage of their base votes in spite of Strayhorn’s proven electoral appeal. This is the classic, and perhaps predictable, Perry victory math. But it is an interesting point of departure for the larger discussion about what could happen. For Strayhorn to win, she must pull huge quantities of the Republican vote­in the 40 to 50 percent range­from Perry, and she must also bite significantly into Bell’s base, winning up to one third of it. Bell wins if Strayhorn whacks 50 percent from Perry but, miraculously, hardly touches Bell, who must also remain largely unaffected by Friedman. (This is the theory advanced by the Lone Star Project, a pro-Democrat, Washington-based political research firm that has Bell winning in that scenario with 32.58 percent to Perry’s 32.24 percent, Strayhorn’s 27.18 percent, and Friedman’s 8 percent.) Recent polls all show Perry in the same leading, though not quite convincing, position: An April 2 Zogby poll had the governor at 36.3, Bell at 20.7, Strayhorn at 19, and Friedman at 16.7, while an April 20 Rasmussen poll showed Perry at 40, Strayhorn at 19 (down 12 from a similar poll in February), Bell at 17 (up 4 percent), and Friedman with 15. (Most analysts assume that if Friedman gets more than 10 percent, he could well guarantee a Perry victory, since those votes are probably coming from Bell or Strayhorn rather than from the governor.)
"

The problem with Texas Monthly's analysis is their "critical assumption" that "the Republican and Democratic candidates will hold a high percentage of their base votes." That AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN. Democrats don't matter because there aren't enough of them in Texas, and Perry won't hold a high persentage of Republicans.

7:47 AM  
Blogger Gayle said...

You make some very valid points, but I'm still thinking "how embarassing to have a governor by the name of Kinky!" I guess it's what one would call a "hangup" of mine. After all, the issues are what is important. However, don't you think if Kinky does win we will be the laughing-stock of the entire country?

I know, or at least I think I know your answer: "Who cares. The issues are what's important!" See.. I knew your answer. And that's true; the issues are what's important. (I'm working on it!)

2:59 PM  
Blogger Musings from Myopia said...

Kinky is, indeed, liberal-leaning. He may not be a pure-bred, dyed-in-the-wool liberal, but he leans toward the liberal world-view...which is one of the reasons I hold him in high regard. That, plus the fact that he disdain political-correctness. I signed a petition for him to get on the ballot and I will vote for him...but I don't for a minute think he will be elected. If he ruins it for Perry, though, that will be enough!

7:40 AM  
Blogger Kinky is Awesome said...

Musings,

Let's be careful about how we use that word "liberal" here in Texas. I think you'd do Kinky less harm among Texas voters if you called Kinky a pedophile than if you called him a liberal. Texas is at least 60% Republican and if Kinky is going to win, he's going to have to do it with Republican votes (not by snipping off the pot-smoking fringe of the less-than-40%-of-voters Democratic Party because even if Kinky gets 33% of the Democrats -- which is unlikely -- that'd only get him about 13% of the vote).

Here is why I believe it is quite inaccurate to call Kinky a "liberal."

Watch this video clip. It is hilarious, it is true, and it is politically incorrect as hell. Liberal politicians are too politically correct to admit the truth that "negro is a charming word." Whatever Kinky is, he's NOT a liberal.

Next, read up on Kinky's get-tough illegal alien plan and his 5 Mexican generals plan. Kinky's common sense border security plan is the straight up "minuteman" approach, not Perry's namby-pamby "let's set up cameras" approach. Make no mistake, Kinky is the only candidate brave enough to say we need armed military generals on our southern border. This is not a liberal plan.

Now consider Kinky's party affiliation. Kinky has run for office in the past as a Republican and he voted for Bush/Cheney in 2004.

Here is an excerpt from Kinky's interview with Ruminator magazine confirms that he supported Bush's Middle East foreign policy:

Question: So does this idea of the honorable cowboy have anything to do with why you threw your support behind President Bush in this last election? You did, didn’t you?
Kinky: Yes. I did in this last election, but I didn’t vote for him the first time.
Question: Who did you vote for in 2000?
Kinky: I voted for Gore then. I was conflicted. . .but I was not for Bush that time. Since then, though, we’ve become friends. And that’s what’s changed things.
Question: So it’s your friendship with him that’s changed your mind about having him as president more than his specific political positions?
Kinky: Well, actually, I agree with most of his political positions overseas, his foreign policy. On domestic issues, I’m more in line with the Democrats. I basically think he played a poor hand well after September 11. What he’s been doing in the Near East and in the Middle East, he’s handling that well, I think.

Now maybe you are like me and you were worried that Kinky showed liberal tendencies by voting for a tree-hugger like Al Gore. Well, rest assured that Kinky was mistaken when he said that. Kinky's public voting records confirm he didn't vote for Al Gore in 2000 because Kinky didn't waste his vote on any candidate from 1994 to 2004 when he voted for Bush/Cheney.

Maybe you think Kinky's a liberal because he's a Jew. Rest assured, Kinky's views on religion are well to the right of Perry's. Kinky wants to take time during the school day for prayers in schools, and he wants to post the Ten Commandments in public school classrooms.

In summary, Kinky is NO LIBERAL! In fact, Kinky charts WELL TO THE RIGHT of Perry on the issues that matter most to Texas voters.

9:53 AM  
Blogger liquiddaddy said...

My Friend,

I want to thank you personally for visiting me. I love your site and I promise to visit often.

I know Kinky is conservative. You should continue to emphasis why a dyed in the wool Democrat like me HAS to support Kinky to save our party.

Texas needs strong leadership right now like Kinky. He is not corrupted by crooks and special interests. Even though I don't agree with him on everything, I can work with him within the system since I know he is doing everything he can to make sure the game isn't rigged against the common man. I respect and love my fellow Democrats. It is personally sad and painfull to me not to be able to support Mr. Bell for governor. Texas Democrats in the House and Senate have lost there way and need to be disciplined as a party. This can only come from a contrast in leadership that reminds them and the people what it takes to make a stand and to govern by principle.

I am pleased to report that the WIO/USA Today poll has Kinky running 2nd at 21% behind Perry at 35% with Bell at 20%; Scotty the Liar's mom at 19% (the rest undecided).

He is gonna win this thing thus renewing my faith in government.

Thanks and good luck,

LD

5:23 PM  
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7:25 AM  

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